By-Elections: What to Look for on January 11

This week is the first real test of Thaksin's prospects of coming back from the dead. The election of replacements to the executives of the disbanded People Power Party and Chat Thai Party (at least, the 29 of them who were "constituency MPs" - that is, elected in one, two, and three-member districts under the "block vote" system with nominal ballots) will go a long way towards showing how strong the newly formed Peua Thai Party really is. More importantly, the election result itself might help determine the PTP's fate. If PTP cleans up, it has a chance to stop its recent hemorrhaging of allies and MPs to Abhisit's new government. If the PTP comes out soundly defeated, look out. MPs who are currently on the fence (or have ambitions to create their own parties) will likely see a routing as evidence that they have little to lose from abandoning ship. And, even if they don't, a defeat will have the effect of greatly strengthening the factions and faction leaders within the PTP vis-a-vis the organization itself, possibly paving the way for its future disintegration.

While I will not venture to make predictions, which given the lack of reliable polling data would amount to pure guesswork, it is possible to specify the scenarios that would qualify as a good, bad, and so-so result for the PTP.

Based on the information I was able to locate, it looks like of the 26 constituencies where by-elections are being held, PTP will not run candidates in every one but should have next-to complete coverage considering that its ally Pracharaj (with which PTP seems to have a stand-down agreement) has placed 14 candidates of its own in other districts.

SHOULD BE PTP "SAFE" SEATS IN THE NORTH AND ISAN

The minimally acceptable result for the Peua Thai/Pracharaj combination would be to keep at least the 8 seats in the North and in Isan that were held by PPP executives now banned from politics (in the provinces of Buriram, Lampang, Lamphun, Maha Sarakham, Nakhorn Phanom, Roi Et, Si Saket, and Udon). The Democratic Party has an outside shot at an upset in Lampang 1 and Lamphun 1; in 2007, both 3-seat districts were swept by the PPP but DP candidates placed well.

WHAT TO LOOK FOR: If the PTP/Pracharaj holds in Isan (except perhaps in Buriram) but loses in Lampang and Lamphun, the current narrative ("Thaksin COULD be finished") continues to dominate the news. If PTP is defeated in Isan districts outside Buriram, it could signal its impending disintegration.

PPP HELD BATTLEGROUND DISTRICTS

PTP/Pracharaj are especially vulnerable in a few Central Thailand districts where the PPP had won seats in 2007 - in the provinces of Samut Prakan, Saraburi, and Ratchaburi. These are districts where a Democratic Party candidate was narrowly defeated in 2007 (Samut Prakan 1, Saraburi 2) and/or a Democrat MP has actually been elected in 2007 along with a PPP candidate (Saraburi 2, Ratchaburi 1). Based on the 2007 results, Chachoengsao 1 should be safer, as the first loser was a PPP candidate and the Democrats did not fare well.

WHAT TO LOOK FOR: If PTP/Pracharaj hold on to these districts, it will be evidence that the recent selection of Abhisit to PM has done little to damage PTP's prospects; if PTP/Pracharaj and the DP even split these districts, the race is likely to be described as a victory for Abhisit. More generally, these races are a test of how voters in places where the Democrats are not hated see Abhisit's rise. Will there be a backlash? Or will voters express their relief at the relative tranquillity that has followed?

CHAT THAI - HELD DISTRICTS

The biggest potential upside for PTP/Pracharaj is in the pursuit of the 16 seats held by disqualified Chat Thai MPs. The only races where PTP/Pracharaj should not be competitive at all are those in Suphanburi 1 and 2 (5 seats in total are up for by-election in Banharn's fortress). But, in 2007, PPP actually won seats in Buriram 4, Lopburi 1, Narathiwat 2, Nakhorn Pathom 1, Pathum Thani 1, Si Saket 1, Ubon 2. And, still in 2007, PPP losing candidates placed well in Angthong 1, Buriram 4, Lopburi 1, Nakhorn Pathom 1, Narathiwat 2, Pathum Thani 1, Singburi 1, Si Saket 1, Ubon 2, and Ubon 3.

WHAT TO LOOK FOR: Now that Chart Thai Pattana supports the Abhisit government, all these races have acquired increased significance. Ideally primed for pick-off appear to be the Isan districts (Si Saket 1, Ubon 2 and 3; Buriram 4 seems more in doubt). But, PTP/Pracharaj also have a very good chance to pick off some of the old competitive Chat Thai seats in Central Thailand (Angthong 1, Lopburi 1, Nakorn Pathom 1, and Pathum Thani 1). Essentially, these races will be a test of the outrage against the PAD and the current government that exists in Central Thai provinces where the support for Thaksin was once strong. If Chat Thai's old clientelistic network prevails, it will signal business as usual; if, however, PTP/Pracharaj do well in these districts, this will bode well for those working towards Thaksin's resurgence. 

ON THE WHOLE

-PTP/Pracharaj should be moderately satisfied with somewhere in the range of 15-20 seats (its seats in the North and Isan, some of the PPP's old seats in Central Thailand, and some of the CT's old seats in Isan). 

-If PTP/Pracharaj win anywhere below 10, the PTP is in trouble. This result would signal, at best, that PTP has become just a regional party and, at worst, that it is destined to implode sometime in the near future. 

-If PTP/Pracharaj win more than 20 seats, the narrative could shift quite dramatically in Peua Thai favor. To do so, it will have had to: 1) Vanquish its rivals in Isan; 2) Defeat the DP in Central Thai districts where the PPP had won seats narrowly in 2007; 3) Beat CTP in its own home in Central Thailand. Therefore, it would have achieved a sweeping victory against all its main rivals as well as shaved at least a further 10 seats off Abhsit's narrow majority.

KEY RACES TO WATCH: Buriram 4; Lampang 1; Lamphun 1; Lopburi 1; Nakorn Pathom 1; Patum Thani 1; Samut Prakan 1; Saraburi 2; Ratchaburi 1.